Gail Model for 5 Year Risk of Breast Cancer (1999 paper)

 

Input
 

Age Menarche	Age at menarche >=14 years old (1.00)
	12-13 years old (1.10)
	<12 years old (1.21)
Num Biops Age at counseling <50 years old: No biopsies (1.00) 1 biopsy (1.70) >=2 biopsies (2.88) Age at counseling >=50 years old: No biopsies (1.00) 1 biopsy (1.27) >=2 biopsies (1.62) _______________________________________
Age FLB Num Rels Age at 1st live birth <20 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.00) 1 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (2.61) >=2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (6.80) Age at 1st live birth 20-24 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.24) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (2.68) >=2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (5.78) Age at 1st live birth 25-29 yrs or nullip: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.55) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (2.76) >=2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (4.91) Age at 1st live birth >=30 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.93) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (2.83) >=2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (4.17) _______________________________________
Atyp Hyper	No biopsies (1.00)
	At least one biopsy and no atypical hyperplasia found in any biopsy specimen (0.93)
	No atypical hyperplasia found and hyperplasia status unknown for at least one biopsy specimen (1.00)
	Atypical hyperplasia found in at least one biopsy specimen (1.82)
Baseline Age Race Patient Age -- Black Women 20-24 (0.014) 25-29 (0.050) 30-34 (0.120) 35-39 (0.224) 40-44 (0.310) 45-49 (0.355) 50-54 (0.416) 55-59 (0.511) 60-64 (0.562) 65-69 (0.586) 70-74 (0.646) 75-79 (0.713) 80-84 (0.659) Patient Age -- White Women ( ) 20-24 (0.012) 25-29 (0.049) 30-34 (0.134) 35-39 (0.278) 40-44 (0.450) 45-49 (0.584) 50-54 (0.703) 55-59 (0.859) 60-64 (1.018) 65-69 (1.116) 70-74 (1.157) 75-79 (1.140) 80-84 (1.006) _______________________________________

 

Results
 

Relative Risk
Five Year Risk
Decimal Precision   0 1 2 3

 

 

Notes

• Be sure to go through all of the pull-down choices--some select more than one risk factor that are linked (see below.)
• The Num Biops term refers to the number of prior breast biopsies performed. It is linked to the Age at Counseling.
• The Age FLB Num Rels term refers to the subject's age when she had her first live birth. It is linked to the number of her relatives that have been diagnosed with breats cancer.
• the Baseline Age Race term is the subject's age. It is linked to the subject's race.

 
Equations used
 

RelativeRisk = AgeMenarche * NumBiops * AgeFLBNumRels * AtypHyper

FiveYearRisk = RelativeRisk * BaselineAgeRace

 

 

Calculation Details and Variables

• Equation parameters such as Age Menarche, have two or more discrete values that may be used in the calculation. The numbers in the parentheses, e.g. (1.00), represent the values that will be used.

 

References

1. Gail MH, Constantino JP, Bryant J, et al. Weighing the Risks and Benefits of Tamoxifen Treatment for Preventing Breast Cancer. J. National Cancer Institute. 1999; V91, #21, pages 1829-1846. PubMed ID: 10547390
2. Costantino JP, Gail MH, Pee D, et al. Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Sep 15;91(18):1541-8. PubMed ID: 10491430